UTRGV political science professors say the March 1 primary netted some “interesting” and “surprising results” in the District 15 U.S. representative and the District 27 state senator races.
With 100% of 233 precincts in five counties reporting, unofficial results show that in the Democratic primary race for U.S. Representative, District 15, Democrats Ruben Ramirez and Michelle Vallejo are in a runoff after no candidate garnered more than 50% of the votes. Ramirez led the ballot with 9,198 votes, or 28.29%, followed by Vallejo’s 6,547, or 20.13% of the votes. John Villarreal Rigney, Eliza Alvarado, Vanessa Stephanie Tijerina and Julio Garza also ran.
Runoffs for the primary election are scheduled for May 24.
Monica De La Cruz won the Republican nomination for District 15 with 16,801 votes or 56.54%. Mauro Garza, Ryan Krause, Aizar Cavazos, Sara Canady, Angela Juarez, John C. Lerma, Steve Schmuker Jr. and Vangela Churchill also ran.
UTRGV Political Science Lecturer Andrew Smith based on the Edinburg campus told The Rider that the race for District 15 was one of the most interesting, at least on the Democratic ballot, with De La Cruz easily winning the Republican nomination.
“You have a contrast between Ruben Ramirez who is, kind of, a Vicente Gonzalez-type of moderate Democrat, and … Michelle Vallejo, who is very much on the left wing of the Democratic Party,” Smith said. “So, whoever wins that runoff in May, I mean, it’s gonna lead to a very interesting November election, for sure.”
In the November 2020 election, current Republican nominee De La Cruz lost to then-incumbent Vicente Gonzalez by only 6,588 votes in the District 15 congressional race. She garnered 109,017 votes, compared to Gonzalez’s 115,605.
According to Ballotpedia.com, Texas enacted new congressional districts on Oct. 25, 2021. This caused Gonzalez’s residence to be zoned in Congressional District 34, according to Smith.
Last Tuesday, Gonzalez won the nomination for the Democratic ballot for U.S. Representative, District 34, with 23,408 votes or 64.75%. His rival, Laura Cisneros, garnered 8,425 votes. Beatriz Reynoso, William Thompson, Filemon Meza, Diego Zavala and Osbert Rodriguez Haro also ran.
In the Republican primary, District 34 U.S. representative candidate Mayra Flores won the nomination with 9,479 votes, or 60.39%. Frank McCaffrey received 3,432 votes. Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. and Juana Cantu-Cabrera also ran. Gonzalez and Flores will face off in the November election.
The race for District 27 state senator was led by Morgan LaMantia on the Democratic ballot with 13,445 votes or 33.75%. Sara Stapleton-Barrera captured 13,037 votes or 32.73%. The two are in a runoff for the position. Alex Dominguez, former District 27 state representative, garnered 10,066 votes.
Adam Hinojosa won the Republican nomination for the same position with 13,314 votes or 50.97% districtwide. Raul Torres received 9,039 votes and Isreal Salinas garnered 3,768.
“You’re going to have two primarily progressive candidates in the Democratic runoff facing against an ultra conservative who won the Republican nomination outright,” Smith said of the race for state senator. “So, it does seem as though the Democratic voters in that district may be ready to move on from [former longtime Democratic incumbent] Eddie Lucio [Jr.], who was one of the most conservative Democrats in any office nationwide.
“Now, the question then becomes, regardless of whether it is Stapleton-Barrera or Morgan LaMantia who wins, the question will then become, is that district itself going to move to the left or is it still conservative and therefore may very well go for [Adam Hinojosa] in the November elections.”
Mark Kaswan, a UTRGV political science associate professor who is based on the Brownsville campus, told The Rider that on the Democratic ballot in the race for District 27 state senator, he is “sure Alex Dominguez was a little bit surprised in the runoff.”
“He didn’t run a very heavy campaign and, actually, LaMantia might be disappointed that she didn’t get it outright because she worked really hard,” Kaswan said. “And I thought Sara Stapleton-Barrera wasn’t running a very strong campaign, either. So, that one, I actually had expected it to be Dominguez and LaMantia. So, I’m surprised.”
He said the race is interesting because Stapleton-Barrera is a clear progressive while some may argue that “LaMantia is a Republican in Democratic clothing.” Kaswan said it will be interesting to see how that will play out in the runoffs.
In the race for Texas governor, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott easily won the nomination after receiving 1,286,454 votes statewide. Allen B. West, Don Huffines, Rick Perry, Chad Prather, Kandy Kaye Horn and Danny Harrison also ran.
On the Democratic ballot for governor, Beto O’Rourke won the nomination in a landslide. O’Rourke received 966,096 or 91.34% of votes statewide. Joy Diaz, Michael Cooper, Inocencio “Inno” Barrientez and Rich Wakeland also ran.
Asked what the likelihood is of Texas turning blue in the November election, Kaswan replied that it does not look good for the Democrat in the race for governor.
“Beto O’Rourke would probably have a better chance if he did not run for president,” he said. “But, because he lost [in the 2018 U.S. Senate race] to Ted Cruz, who was a very vulnerable candidate, and then badly in the [2020] presidential race, some people may now see him as kind of a loser. And that would make it very difficult for him to be successful.”
By the same token, Kaswan said there are Republicans who are upset with Abbott, so he is interested to see which way it will go.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Mike Collier garnered 413,228 votes or 41.52% to Michelle Beckley’s 300,892 votes or 30.23%. Carla Brailey also ran. Collier and Beckley will face each other again in the May runoff.
On the Republican ballot, incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick won the nomination with 1,412,043 votes. Daniel Miller, Trayce Bradford, Zach Vance, Aaron Sorrells and Todd M. Bullis also ran.
In the state attorney general race, Republican incumbent Ken Paxton, who garnered 816,335 votes or 42.74%, and challenger George P. Bush, who received 435,220 votes or 22.78%, are headed for a runoff in May. Eva Guzman and Louie Gohmert also ran.
The Democratic ballot for attorney general led to a runoff between Rochelle Mercedes Garza, a Brownsville native, who garnered 432,212 votes or 43.12%, and Joe Jaworski, grandson of Watergate special prosecutor Leon Jaworski, with 196,463 votes or 19.6%. Lee Merritt, S. “T-Bone” Raynor and Mike Fields also ran.
“The Republican result was about as expected,” Smith said. “Paxton facing numerous legal problems and some criticism statewide for some of the policy positions he’s taken as attorney general, I think, set him up to be subjected to the runoffs. The Democratic side. The runoff is not unexpected. And, really, Rochelle Garza, at least in terms of the Valley vote, is not surprising because she is a Brownsvillian. … The fact is that there’s the potential to have the first woman attorney general in Texas history, I believe the first Hispanic attorney general in Texas history.”
In the race for comptroller of public accounts, Glenn Hegar won the Republican nomination with 1,373,289 votes or 81.62%. Rival Mark V. Goloby garnered 309,164 votes.
Janet T. Dudding led the Democratic ballot for comptroller with 445,382 votes or 46.15% statewide, followed by Angel Luis Vega with 334,686 votes or 34.68%. Tim Mahoney also ran. Dudding and Vega will face off for the position in May.
In the race for commissioner of the General Land Office, Sandragrace Martinez led the Democratic ballot with 310,337 votes or 31.99% statewide, followed by Jay Kleberg with 250,188 votes or 25.79%. The two will face off for the position in the runoff. Michael Lange and Jinny Suh also ran.
The Republican ballot was led by Dawn Buckingham with 671,235 votes or 41.81%, followed by Tim Westley with 238,046 votes or 14.83%. Victor Avila, Weston Martinez, Ben Armenta, Jon Spiers, Don W. Minton and Rufus Lopez also ran. Buckingham and Westley will face off in the runoff in May.
In the race for agriculture commissioner, Susan Hays won the Democratic nomination with 800,848 votes or 82.81% statewide. Ed Ireson received 166,233 votes.
Republican agriculture commissioner incumbent Sid Miller won the nomination with 983,152 votes or 58.48% statewide. James White and Carey A. Counsil also ran.
In the race for railroad commissioner, Democrat Luke Warford ran unopposed and garnered 901,239 votes statewide.
On the Republican ballot for railroad commissioner, incumbent Wayne Christian led statewide with 766,566 votes or 47.19%. Sarah Stogner followed with 245,581 votes or 15.12%. The two will face each other in the May runoff. Tom Slocum Jr., Marvin “Sarge” Summers and Dawayne Tipton also ran.
In the race for District 20 state senator, incumbent Juan ‘Chuy’ Hinojosa ran unopposed on the Democratic ballot, garnering 36,222 votes.
Westley Wright won the Republican nomination with 16,213 votes or 73.17% districtwide. Johnny Partain also ran. The stage is set for Hinojosa and Wright to face off in the November election.
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